Dodged a profit warning

Had a nice break from the markets in August. For a very long time I envied those lucky traders heading to the beach for the summer, so it had to be done. Nothing extravagant, there are some amazing places in Wales, Isle of Wight. Truth be told, I think I managed about 3 days without peeping in. Late Aug I sold ARB for a c15% gain as it was only a bitcoin bounce play, sold PETS for 10% ADF for 10% GAMA b/e and CBOX c 20% loss in aggregate ( really lucky with my timing, just dodged the pw the other day) leaving only AMS, GNS and POLY in the l/t pf which is still down c 6% ytd. Trading acc much better at c +20% ytd all in cash for the month, needed to pay the bills.

I feel really bad about the CBOX profit warning, especially as I defended the company but we have to distinguish between the accounting debacle and the actual trading of the business. Hot weather would have an impact as for some bizarre reason people eat less cake , but my main worry was the energy bills and inflation in general. Without gov support, the energy bills will put a big dent in everyone’s finances. Especially small businesses which not only will have to pay more, but face less demand from customers as well. I still believe in the ceo and once the current macro headwinds recede, will revisit the potential here.

The most significant loss this year was CRL c 75% down and all gone now, regret holding for so long and ignoring the macro risks. After the very poor H2 results I just don’t think: a. they have any pricing power and b. acquisitions are not their forte. The blame on rising costs were well documented and known. Another one for the watch list for when the macro improves.

I don’t really have an insight into GAMA’s weakness, there seems to be relentless selling which may or may not be warranted. Not even a dead bounce this summer. SME’s customer defaults in UK and EU could be a potential issue.

My view still remains that markets made the lows for this year but longer term who knows ? The gov will throw in some sort of help but not as generous as the covid one, but then that means more inflation and higher interest rates. Either way, it’s not good.

We are in a bear market and for me, capital preservation is critical. Also, it’s a traders’ market.