It's a tough game

It’s understandable why investors are so quiet on social media, what’s the point in watching something that is not enjoyable every day, all day. Know what you own, switch off and get on with life. No point allowing the markets to get you down. From a psychological point of view, I found that best returns come from buying shares when you feel the most uncomfortable with, when all the hope is lost and you are on the brink of capitulation. In a bull market it’s very easy to be clever, but it’s the bear market that will test you and make you stronger.( A little tip I found that works for relaxing the mind: if you have a smart tv, switch from CNBC to YouTube and watch or listen to nature sounds -my fave are beach/ocean waves, even for a couple of hours a day, it feels good. Especially when it’s sunny outside as well).

Short review of my current holdings:

POLY - special situation high risk gold miner, my argument is very basic: eventually the war will end and the share price will recover. Took my initial stake out.

ADF - the film business in UK will continue to thrive and the co has 6-12 months earnings visibility, still waiting for that elusive acquisition.

CBOX- audited FY results proved the critics wrong and I have full confidence that the ceo will continue to run the co for the benefit of all shareholders. There isn’t much else to say.

CRL- another well run co, sentiment on its knees, probably the best time to buy the shares. I clearly bought in too early, tempted to average down.

AMS- resilient non-cyclical business, has a good pipeline of wound care products for mid-long term growth.

PETS- derated on consumer fears, I believe the business will be resilient enough in a downturn as people will carry on spending on their pets.

GAMA- again, solid long term telecom business derated to lowest PER since it floated 8 years ago, on growth fears.

ARB- took a punt on bitcoin on oversold sentiment, feeling stupid already.

CASH- c 10% left.

Although at the moment it’s almost impossible to get optimistic about the stock market, as the CB’s are basically killing consumer demand and the economy, I think the markets went down far enough for the time being. The market has discounted armaggedon earnings and I just don’t think they’ll be as bad, at least not this year. Let’s not forget that politicians will play the “good cop” against the central banks with more handouts if things get too bad. There is a good chance the FED’s aggressive talk will have calmed inflation down and they won’t have to raise as much as feared, but if they make the mistake of hiking too much too fast, the markets will fall even further. There are some early indications of peak inflation as most commodities rolled over amid historic low consumer sentiment but there is a difference between sentiment and reality. The consumer is still in good shape and sentiment can change very quickly.

Being a long term investor in a bear market is not a clever strategy either, this is more of a trader’s market so I will be more proactive with the long term account as well from now on.